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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."